BUSH AND ASSOCIATES CONSULTING Performance Specialists: News and Views
vol. 11             ;         editor: Maureen Alear           &n bsp;     March 2003
The work of our teams is grounded in a unified philosophy that - in demonstrable and practical ways - is shaping the
effectiveness of organizations around the world.
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IN THIS ISSUE
Kyoto Impact on Canada - Part 1: Policy
IRAQI OIL: Follow the Money
THE ECONOMY: The Next Quarter
readers Q &  A:  Another Scam
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Advertisement - Kyoto Impact by Industry Sector - US$50.00 For details on how to order your sector report, email us with your SIC number or name of your industry or company.
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TIP OF THE WEEK
The greatest resistance to change does not come from the lower levels of the organization, but from the upper levels. It is those levels which have made successful careers under the old paradigms. When the market shifts around them, they will do more of the outdated activities, not try new things. Tap your Young Turks to thrive in the changed environment.
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KYOTO Impact on Canada - Part 1: Policy
The signing of the Kyoto Protocol is a continuation of the Federal government's policy of the past forty years. It is another program in the misallocation (redistribution) of resources away from industries of comparative advantage (forestry, mining, fisheries) and their synergistic industries to industries with less benefit to the economy (automotive, aerospace, medical, telecommunications). Regardless of the Protocol, as technology changes, emissions will decline as it makes good business sense to do so. The protocol will force either increased costs or shutdowns earlier than necessary for some firms resulting in competitive disadvantages and lost jobs. All to achieve an emissions number which has still not been conclusively correlated to climate change. Drastic measures to gain political points with special interests to reduce Canada's 3% of world emissions. At least it keeps the economy on its downward trend, increasing the performance gap which currently sits at $250 billion / year.
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IRAQI OIL: Follow the Money
The UN indecision over Iraq is driven by oil interests. The French, Russian and to a lesser extent Chinese, oil supplies and business activities in Iraq are key to their opposition to deposing the regime of Hussein. The economic impact of a military incursion and the uncertainty of the friendliness of the successor regime have motivated them to fight for maintaining the status quo. On the other side, the US and UK have few bvusiness interests in Iraq with little to lose and potentially much to gain from a change of regime and in direct relations with their allies.
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THE ECONOMY - The Next Quarter
Feds Miss Another Opportunity: Trade mission to UK, Netherlands and Italy postponed due to uncertainty over Iraq situation. Regardless of possible military action in Iraq, the countries being visited do not have significant business interests in Iraq, therefore, the Trade mission is well timed. Canadian business has yet another missed opportunity for expanding markets and contacts. Given that there are no good business reasons for the postponement, then the resultant lost opportunities rest squarely on the political agenda of the Liberals and their advisors, to the disadvantage of the Canadian economy and its workers.
Soft Market Indicators Hit Canada: The Conference Board of Canada has reported that consumer spending is down with the debt load up. This is consistent with the natural lag in the Canadian economy relative to world trends. Also, consumption numbers were artificially supported by a spate of hiring in the public sector. These low value jobs will contribute a net negative effect to achievable GDP.
Continued Soft Markets: Markets will tend to remain soft through the quarter. Sectoral and regional differences provide opportunities for companies to increase market presence in anticipation of the turnaround this fall. Share values still have room to fall as the full effect of the tech and consumer bubbles have not been equated into valuations. Expect technology rationalizations to continue. Canadian mining, forestry and other export weighted sectors face stiff public policy challenges with their best options off-shore investments. Demand in the automotive and aerospace sectors will decline further. Companies must focus on the longer term, the next five to ten years, as short term woes show no signs of abating soon.
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NEWS BITES
Bombardier Stocks Down: deHavilland assets were dogs when purchased. Bombardier management could not turn them around. They need to divest the remaining assets. Bombardier itself has not redefined itself in its core declining markets nor identified new and emerging markets for its production capabilities. Given this, expect yet another plea for funds from the public troughs (and donations to the LPC) until they get it right.

Interest rate increase: The main impact will be on the domestic economy. The exchange rate increase has accommodated the effect on international markets. In Canada, debt financing costs will increase, making debt investments elsewhere more attractive. This anomaly may be to reduce an overage in the money supply in Canada. We had hoped that the central Bank would have taken the corrective regulatory measures to reduce the supply without having to resort to interest rate measures. Economic activity supporting long term growth is not strong enough to sustain the differential versus other countries. Inflationary factors magnified in this relatively small economy, must be weighted by trendicators more effectively before increasing the cost of debt and financing in the economy.
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OUR READERS Q & A

Q. Is this for real? Received via email, sounds too good to be true. Neil Cosgrove, Calgary, Alberta, Canada

FROM: MR. TEDDY OWENS JAMES
TEL: 0031-630-062-608

I would like to begin by way of introduction.My name is TEDDY O. JAMES,a native of Capetown-South Africa and a senior employee to the South Africa Ministry of energy and Mineral Resources currently here in Amsterdam- Netherlands on a 3 months civil service research.

I ran into your personal information, in search of a trustworthy and reliable person with the office of chamber of commerce in Brussel , though i did not disclose the purpose of search. I am writing this letter to solicite your co-operation in order to redeem an investment interest currently being held under trust with the South Africa Ministry of energy and mineral resources.The said investment now valued at US$36.500.000.00 (Thirty six million five hundred United State Dollars) was consolidated mining corporation in 1985 for 14 years.

Since the maturity of this contract in August 1999,several attempt have been made without success to contact MR. MOORE MOFFAT or any of his close relatives,in whose favour the investment cash value could be paid to. My partner who is the account director at Ministry of energy and Mineral resources and two other collegues,have initiated the process of filing a claim for this money,with the hope of having these funds transferred into a safe OVERSEA ACCOUNT. We as civil service officials are deprive by law of the legal right to opperate oversea bank account, under the Constitutional Assembly civil service constitutional finacial code conduct bureau (Act -0221/s-sec GDF/47-ZA) on 8th-may -1996 of REPUBLIC OF SOUTH AFRICA.

We would FILE-IN A CLAIM for this money with the Ministry claiming that you were appointed by MR. MOORE MOFFAT to be the beneficiary to these funds.The approval procedure of this claim, take 5-7 working days. As soon as the claim is approved, the stated sum of US$36.500.000.00 (Thirty six million five hundred thousand United State Dollars ) will be transferred into an account of your choice,after which my collegues and I shall travel to meet with you for the disbursement of the fund. Since the money will be in your custody,you have the responsibility to ensure that my collegues and I receive 85% of the total sum while 10% for your assistance in putting claim and providing an oversea account; 5% have been set aside for any incidential expences that might be incured in the cource of this transaction.
Please we urgue you to keep this affair STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL ,because we are still in active Government service. I want to assure you that my partners are in position to make the payment of this claim possible,provided you agree to meet with us and give us the guarantee that our share will be well secure in your care. Be rest assured that there is absolutely nothing to worry about in view of this claim; for your role is RISK FREE, and it not subject to any enquiry as my partner will handle the claims directly on behalf in South Africa.

Please acknowledge the receipt of this letter by urgently contacting me through telephone (+31-630-062-608) and e-mail for details of this transaction. I look forward to your prompt respond.

Yours truly, TEDDY O. JAMES

NOTE: YOUR PHONE NUMBER IS VERY IMPORTANT, AS BUSINESS OF THIS MAGNITUDE AND NATURE IS NOT SUPPOSED TO BE DONE VIA E-MAIL

A. This is a SCAM. We have confirmed with the RCMP that these are sent out in mass emailings, netting a few marks. When you receive such an email, just delete. M. Alear

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