BUSH AND ASSOCIATES CONSULTING Performance Specialists: News and Views
vol. 10             ;         editor: Maureen Alear           &n bsp;     October 16 2002
The work of our teams is grounded in a unified philosophy that - in demonstrable and practical ways - is shaping the effectiveness of organizations around the world.
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IN THIS ISSUE
tip of the week
article: the 85:5:5:5 rule
feature: the global village
definition
food for thought
hi-tech
the economy
readers Q &  A
training courses
forums
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Advertisement - Lobbying Kits now available for NAFTA, European Union trading blocs. For more information contact: lobbying kits.
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TIP OF THE WEEK
When things go wrong, we tend to blame those we dislike, underrating the bureaucratic, systemic incompetence which is the source of the problem. Look to the sytem first, 95% of your problems start there.
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ARTICLE: THE 85:5:5:5 RULE - Know Your Population Distribution

Studies in organizational development illustrate that your population will tend to behave according to the 85:5:5:5 Rule. No matter how ingenious oneís selection process is on hiring, the company will tend toward this behavioural distribution.

85% are average to satisfactory participants who will contribute their input as required or requested.
5% are leaders or drivers who make things happen to achieve the desired results.
5% are roadblocks or brakes to the functioning of the group and tend to behave contrary to the organizationís objectives.
5% are fencesitters, your future managers or troublemakers.

As a manager, devoting oneís efforts toward the 85% will take time and resources away from core functions of managing effectively. Clear direction and feedback on jobs well done is what they need, not management.

Devoting oneís efforts to the troublemakers will lead to frustration and confrontation. Management effectiveness will suffer as a cycle of confrontation will creep into the company. Feels good, yet, not productive. Only in the extreme case of discipline must direct action with this group be taken.

Focusing on the fencesitters will create crisis situations and divert management resources from the business to debating the merits of the companyís methods and processes, in the effort to convince this group to come on board. Fun, yet, futile.

Devoting oneís efforts to the 5% of natural leaders will gain the results while freeing up time and resources to manage effectively. Let the natural leaders work their peers and subordinates. With your support, they are better positioned to influence the fencesitters to embrace the company agenda and isolate the troublemakers. Effective and efficient.

As a manager, focus your efforts on the natural leaders to achieve your goals and objectives. Use of such positive political skills will benefit the company and you as manager.

Have you identifed your leaders, fencesitters, troublemakers and core employees? Are you working with the leaders, debating with the fencesitters or are you confronting the problem employees? Which do you tend to do? What strategies would you apply to abandon confrontation and debating, and choose managing?
- Ian E. Bush, President
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FEATURE - THE GLOBAL VILLAGE
If we shrink the worldís population to 100 people, it would look something like this.

57 Asians
21 Europeans
14 North & South Americans
8 Africans

52 female
48 male

70 non caucasian
30 caucasian

70 non christian
30 christian

89 heterosexual
11 homosexual

6 people own 59% of wealth - all in the US

80 substandard housing

70 unable to read

50 malnourished

1 near death; 1 near birth

1 with a post-secondary education

1 owns a computer
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DEFINITION
Consulting: Any time you are trying to change or improve a situation yet have no direct control over the implementation.
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FOOD FOR THOUGHT
There is an ongoing debate among organizational development professionals about the core sources of resistance to change. This can be expressed as: resistance to change comes from the bottom vs. resistance comes from the top. In your organization, where does this resistance tend to be strongest? Which is easiest to overcome? What are the results of change processes in your organization?
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HI-TECH
The Gartner Group predictions on trends in the industry (a must read). Gartner analysts took out their crystal balls and came up with a list of ten predictions that will impact enterprise businesses. The predictions cross over technology, economics, and social boundaries over what will morph during the next eight years.

1. Bandwidth becomes more cost effective than computing Network capacity will increase faster than computing, memory and storage capacity to produce a significant shift in the relative cost of remote versus local computing. Cheap and plentiful bandwidth will catalyze a move toward more centralized networks services, using grid computing models and thin clients. This prediction is based on the fact that optical networking improvements are far outpacing growth in computer-related technology.
2. Most major applications will be interenterprise. The evolution of applications and middleware is heading toward more adaptive software architectures that can be reconfigured on the fly with minimal hassle. This concept is the next evolution of the software model that has spawned ERP suites, portals, CRM, and supply chain applications that span across various constituencies involved in an economic ecosystem.
3. Macroecomonic boost from interenterprise systems. If prediction 2 comes to fruition, the overall economy would reflect a boost in productivity and efficiency. The logic suggests that corporations closely aligned through industry segment or some other value chain should actually see increased productivity that would flow to the macro-economy.
4. Successful firms in strong economy lay off millions. Given that productivity improvement from IT improvements suggested in predictions 2 and 3 come to fruition and healthy profit margins, we envision a shrinking workforce. The concept is that like the agrarian industry, Technology will reach a point where IT system automation substantially lowers the labor requirements.
5. Continued consolidation of vendors in many segments. At least one major player from most segments will disappear by 2004 through extinction or consolidation. That's not a risky prediction. More of the dot com companies will evaporate, and the big fish will consume the smaller fish. The industry will enter a period of oligopoly, in which a few vendors dominate the enterprise landscape, and that by 2007 the innovation and growth cycle will return.
6. Moore's Law continues to hold true through this decade.Moore's Law, which posits that processor power doubles every 18 months, has a 70 percent chance to continue unabated through 2011.
7. Banks become primary provider of presence services by 2007. Presence services can manage your preferences, personal information and experience on the Internet. ìOne-click Internet" is essential to bringing convenience and mobility to the Internet. The future belongs to independent companies or financial service provides, such as the banks. Banks have had to deal with security, privacy and issues of trust for centuries, and that legacy is a particularly relevant in the digital age.
8. Business activity monitoring is mainstream by 2007. BAM (business activity monitoring) is one of hottest buzzwords making the rounds. Think of it as having automated sensors that provide the relevant information and context that leads to more effective, real-time decision-making.
9. Business units, not IT, will make most application decisions rather than a centralized IT department, will make decisions on business applications. By 2007, this trend has a 70 percent probability of governing purchasing in 65 percent of enterprises.
10. Pendulum swings back from centralized to a more decentralized model by 2004. Business objectives outside of cost containment will drive decision-making to business units, where agility is a highly valued commodity and there is a resurgence in economic growth.
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THE ECONOMY
We are close to topping out on Canadian demand driven growth. With our high exposure to trade, particularly with the US, the Bank of Canada has held the prime rate at 2.75%. It will likely remain there until the FED raises its prime rate, not expected for some time or fiscal policy over stimulates demand.
Lead indicators of a recovery are showing up in the metals sector.  Inco, with its duopoly position, is showing healthy projections for nickel with Chinese and South Korean steel mills coming on line. Copper is also on the rebound. In addition, investors should look at solid blue chips like GE while moderating their exposure with including bonds in their portfolios. Sectors which are still on the warning list are telecommunications (many players, limited market), aeronautics (other than defence), entertainment (poor business models), and, PCs (poor revenue models).
Now is the time for you to look at the business opportunities for your products and services. Your 2003 plan should include exploiting the turnaround in 2004.
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OUR READERS Q & A
Your Economy atricle last week omitted Mexico. Isnít its GDP greater than Canadaís?
- Michael Young, Markham, Ontario. Canada
Yes, it is. As a NAFTA player, the interest in bringing them into the trading bloc was the size and potential of this market for Canada and the US. We were looking for eagle-eyed readers and found one. Mexicoís numbers are listed below.
- V. Wong, Associate Director, Benchmarking

Country          &nb sp; GDP           &nbs p;             ;    TRADE
           &nb sp;           ($USB)    export ($) %      import ($) %

Mexico          &nbs p;  865.5          136.8  16            142  16.5

contact us: newsletter
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SEMINARS, COURSES AND SPEAKING ENGAGEMENTS
RIBO Accredited Seminars 2002
Management (Continuing Education Courses for Brokers and Deputies)
Tuesday, October 22 to Thursday, October 24, 2002: Supervisory Skills: Managing for the Millennium (SUP-0199)
Develop, practice and learn the supervisory and management skills and techniques required for the organization of today. The following subjects are studied: Organization Norms and Standards, Employment Law, Communication, Market Dynamics, Problem-solving, Compensation and Benefits, Economics, Marketing, Workplace Interactions, and Job Screening Techniques.
RIBO credit (management, 15 hours)
Fees: $650.00
Tuesday, November 19 to noon Thursday, November 21, 2002: Effective Marketing  (MS-0199)
Through interactive group sessions, case studies and applications, learn and practice the basic principles of marketing products and services in the dynamics markets of today. The seminar will provide principles, practices, applications and direction on how to best use the learnings back at the workplace.
RIBO credit (management, 15 hours)
Fees: $565.00
Tuesday, December 10, 2002: Occupational Health and Safety - Effective Practices for the Safe Organization (PLL-0199)
This seminar covers the major issues in occupational health and safety, with a strong focus on improving your effectiveness at the workplace. It will provide principles, practices, applications and direction on how to best use the learnings back at the workplace.
RIBO credit (management, 8 hours)
Fees: $225.00
All seminars held at Capones Catering & Banquet Facilities, 831 Industrial Avenue (off St. Laurent), Ottawa, Ontario. Canada
Note: All RIBO accredited courses are available as in-house programs. For more information on our full list of courses and the convenience of having our facilitators come to your preferred site, or by correspondence or e-spondence please contact us at:
Phone (613) 841-5924
E-mail: RIBO courses
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BUSH LEARNING INSTITUTE FORUMS
Thursday November 28 and Friday, November 29: Regional and global market dynamics for Canadian business - Daryl Hamilton
Wednesday, December 18: More Techniques to Make Adult Learning Stick - A.P. Day
Wednesday, February 5, 2003: Resource Reallocation Effects of Kyoto: Impact on Leading Economic Indicators for the Canadian Economy - Hamilton and Wong
[ìKyoto Impact by Industry Sectorî  publications available in March 2003 for US$50.00/paper.]
order now: publications (please include your industry sector)
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